Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)


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1. Introduction

We first highlight ongoing and new model development and how these new model components are being applied through cooperation and evaluation. We finish with a proposed strategy and research priorities for moving forward with an integrative approach for improved understanding of energy, agriculture and forest management.

Land cover and land use are not synonymous; however, these words are often incorrectly used interchangeably by the IAM and ESM communities. For purposes of clarity, in this work, we consider land cover as a description of the actual vegetation present at the terrestrial surface.

Even with this definition, differences in interpretation can arise due to the use of different classification systems to characterize land cover e.

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Land use, in contrast, describes the anthropogenic or human use of the land surface, e. The differences between land use and land cover are also important in the context of data and observation. All models are driven by data, whether the data are derived from boundary conditions or through parameter estimation, empirical relationships or direct observations. In the end, model estimates, and therefore model error, reflect the information or analyses that are used to establish initial conditions, parameter estimation or internal algorithms.

Modelling groups differ substantially in how lands, such as managed forest, agricultural production, acreage and unmanaged systems, are identified, characterized and paramaterized. Consistent characterization of mitigation strategies and their implications are largely unknown or unavailable. For instance, reforestation in temperate zones may be used as credit under international climate policy, although some studies have suggested that the associated changes in albedo could at least partly offset the carbon uptake Betts, ; Schaeffer et al.

In contrast, in the tropics, quantification of the climate effects of reforestation or avoided deforestation solely in terms of carbon would fail to account for the unchanged or additional cooling effects of altered evapotranspiration Malhi et al.


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Mitigation options may also have consequences for atmospheric chemistry [e. Some representative processes that are under development and future activities are listed in Table I.

Progress and Applications

Recent advances in data and the economic modelling of global land use are facilitating this development Hertel et al. IAMs often have several model components that communicate at various levels and frequencies e.

References

While model components within an IAM are implemented with variable coupling strength e. IAMs are at various stages of implementing model components that allow competition of bioenergy with food production of land and the impacts on food prices, forests and unmanaged ecosystems, with potential feedback effects from climate change through albedo and emissions.

In general, ESMs account for overland routing of water, but do not consider water impoundments. ESMs are introducing more sophisticated hydrology e. Lawrence, pers comm. This will become more important with increasing pressure and development of urban areas and agriculture in different parts of the world, for both developing and developed countries and to simulate human contributions to changes in runoff, water impoundments e.

Natural or mechanistic fire has been represented in terrestrial ecosystem models since at least the late s Parton et al. Mechanistic fire is generally parameterized through climate and fuel interactions with probabilities of ignition and have been implemented into the DGVMs Spessa and Thonicke, ; Lenihan et al.

In current IAMs, emissions from biomass burning are not specifically simulated. Land cover can determine whether the land surface is a source or sink for many chemically active atmospheric species [e. Globally, nitrogen has a dual nature in terrestrial ecosystems: there is either not enough nitrogen for agricultural production or there is too much Galloway and Cowling, ; Martinelli and Howarth, With very few exceptions Bouwman et al. Planned developments in ESM, such as the implementation of new processes e.

Over the last few years, Earth system modelling groups have made considerable effort in including different kinds of feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate system into their models. IAMs are often used to explore the impact of different scenarios with and without climate policy Fisher et al.

However, the representation of the carbon cycle and climate system in IAMs is highly simplified van Vuuren et al. Therefore, it is important to validate simple representations. Currently, both communities are working to explore feedbacks and interactions between the coupled carbon and climate systems Hibbard et al. Analyses that identify model differences and associated uncertainties by comparing allocation rules of land use on land cover in the ESMs and IAMs will also be performed. Uncertainties, however, are still significant Jung et al.

Demystifying Land-Use and Transportation Modeling

Despite these uncertainties, the role of remote sensing for data and model parameterization, calibration and evaluation should be further explored, e. In particular, the Global Terrestrial Observing System GTOS is developing possible mechanisms for a terrestrial framework and assisting the consistent and continuous observation of the 13 terrestrial ECVs, including the assessment of the status of available standards Sessa and Dolman, To date, some activities have used different existing global observations and derived specific global products, for instance, SYNMAP Jung et al.

As these new products are developed and made available to the scientific community, an operational accuracy assessment system for the identification of problems in characterizing heterogeneous areas is in evolution for the quantification and treatment of error.

Knowledge for Climate

Driven by several international policy processes i. These efforts use both historical remote sensing data, at fine scales i. We argue that these three phenomena are main areas where further collaboration between these communities, together with observing e. These directly relate to the issues we have raised in the previous sections e. Deforestation and its associated processes are important with regard to the carbon cycle and feedbacks to the climate system.


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Empirical evidence of the rates of change of deforestation has been available for the past 25 years, and future progress is anticipated with new observing systems, and measuring and modelling tools. In addition, the uncertainties associated with the net flux of carbon are of the same order as that for the size of the net flux e. It is also important to understand the recent past, because both the human and the biogeochemical processes that contribute to the rates and magnitudes of deforestation are very likely to continue to be important in the future.

Finally, deforestation is a major element in climate policy discussions. Consequently, an important research priority is to improve the representation of recent past e. Representation of rates of deforestation in ESMs is largely dependent on information from historical sources, the integrated assessment and remote sensing communities. Assumptions on agricultural productivity critically determine land use in the coming century.

They also determine the potential for bioenergy de Vries et al. Moreover, results suggest that when carbon is valued, crop prices raise significantly, even in the absence of crops grown specifically for bioenergy production. Heel Nederland in Minecraft! Geodan Research, a. AI Crowd Simulation Demo.

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References - Briassoulis

Herrington, J. An instructional design framework for authenthic learning environments. Educational technology research and development, 48 3 , pp. Kearney, K. Create and construct: incredible Minecraft Cities. London: Octopus Publishing Group Limited. Kelderman, O.

Estimating Demand for Industrial and Commercial Land Use Given Economic Forecasts

Reflectie Markerwaddenproject en het werken met Minecraft Edu. Koomen, E. Kortmann, R. Veerkracht - a game for servant-leadership development. In: C. Otoiu and G. Otoiu, eds. The journey of change: mapping the process. Kourtit, K. Editorial: Urban Futures. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 8 3 , pp.

Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library) Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)
Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications (GeoJournal Library)

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